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Last Updated 15 January 2009
Welcome!
Today I'll be talking about the WAI-AGE project that is looking at the requirements of older people using the Web.
The presentation will introduce the project, talk about the changing world-wide demographic situation, introduce some of the findings from a literature review, highlight some of the requirements of older users, and talk about the next steps for the project.
European Commission funded project focused on:
The Web Accessibility Initiative: Ageing Education and Harmonisation (WAI-AGE) project is funded as a European Commission IST Specific Support Action with the goal of increasing accessibility of the Web for the elderly as well as for people with disabilities in European Union Member States.
The project is specifically intended to:
Much more information is avaiable from the Project page at www.w3.org/WAI/WAI-AGE/
Lets first look at the motivations behind this project ... [next slide]
Forecast changes in world demographics
United Nations is expecting:
Source: UN World Population Prospects
The United Nations has forecast that "Globally, the number of persons aged 60 years or over is expected nearly to triple, increasing from 673 million in 2005 to 2 billion by 2050" while at the same time, the total population is only forecast to increase by 40%. They also state that "Today, about half of the oldest-old [those over 80 years] live in developing countries but that share is expected to reach 71 per cent in 2050". At the same time, they expect the working-age population to decline by 5%.
Note: The UN defines 'working-age' as 15-59 years
Increasing population over 65 years:
EuroStat forecast:
Source: EuroStat (PDF)
In the European Union, the EU-27 group of countries are predicted to to have nearly 30% over its population over 64 years by 2050, up from 17% in 2010 to 20% in 2020, 24% in 2030, and 27% in 2040.
Many countries will experience different changes from this - some are forcast to have greater proportions, others lower proprtions of over their populations over 65 years. For example Ireland is forecast to grow from 11% in 2010 to just 24% in 2050, while Italy is forecast to grow from 23% in 2010 to 33% in 2050.
Note to presenters:
Several slides follow with specific country demographic forecasts for you to select from.
You may like to contrast your own country with a low growth and/or a high growth country.
Population over 50 years
Population over 65 years
Source: UK Office of National Statistics
This slide shows the ageing trend in the UK ... the number of people over 50 years will rise from 35% in 2010 to 38% in 2020 and 39% in 2030, while the population over 65 years will rise from 17% in 2010 to 19% in 2020 to 22% in 2030 (and by 2030, the UK is forecast to have 53,000 people over 100 years!)
While the proportion over 50 years is not forecast to grow as rapidly as the proportion over 65 years, it does represent people still in the workforce who may be starting to experience some age-related impairments such as vision and hearing decline (for instance the proportion of people with hearing loss increases sharply at around age 50, and 10% of UK blind and partially sighted people are in the 50-64 age group [76% are over 65 years]).
Note to presenters:
Don't forget to read the numbers out for those who may have low vision
Spain is forecast to experience similar ageing patterns to the EU average for the next decade, but will exceed the EU average by the 2050.
[read out the data]]
Source: EUROPE IN FIGURES — Eurostat yearbook 2006-07 (Chapter 1 - Population) PDF
Population over 65 years
Source: Reuters
Discuss the numbers and emphasise that in Japan it is currently 1 in 5 over 65; within 30 years it will be 1 in 3
Japan's proportion of people over 65 years is the highest in the world, and the UN forecasts that "population of Japan is projected to remain the oldest in the world with a median age of 55 years in 2050."
At the same time, Japan's total population is expected to decline from around 127m people at present to less than 90m people by 2050.
Population over 65 years
Source: US Census
US projects are ... [read out numbers]
The United States is forecast to experience lower ageing patterns compared with the EU. For example, the US is forecast to have 16% of its population over 65 year of age in 2020, while Europe forecasts 21%.
[read out the data]
Source: US Population Projections (released 2008) - see Table 3
Australian projections are ... [read out numbers]
Australia is forecast to experience lower ageing patterns compared with the EU average. For example, Australia is forecast to only have 19% of its population over 65 year of age in 2026, while Europe forecasts 36% in 2025.
Source: ABS Australian Population Projections (2006 TO 2101) - Catalogue # 3222.0
http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/3222.02006%20to%202101?OpenDocument
Population over 65 years
create a local slide if details are available
Note to presenters:
Forecasts for all EU countries are available from EUROPE IN FIGURES — Eurostat yearbook 2006-07 (Chapter 1 - Population) PDF
UN forecasts for most regions and countries are available from the UN's Population database
Local projections may be available from the national statistics organisation or Government department in your country
European old-age dependency ratio
This table highlights forecast differences across Europe in the population over 65
as a percentage of those aged 16-64 years.
| Year | EU (EU-25) |
NL (Netherlands) |
AT (Austria) |
IT (Italy) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 26% | 22% | 26% | 31% |
| 2030 | 40% | 37% | 41% | 45% |
| 2050 | 53% | 49% | 53% | 66% |
Source: EuroStat (PDF)
This table highlights the forecast differences across Europe over the next four decades in the old-age dependency ratio.
In 2005, most countries were close to the EU average of 1 person over 65 for every four of working age (1:4).
The EU average in 2010 will be 26%, forecast to rise to 40% in 2030 and 53% in 2050 (i.e. a change from 4 workers for every retiree to 2 workers for every retiree).
Some individual countries within the EU vary considerably from the average [read out the contrasting figures for Netherlands, Austria and Italy]
These forecast changes between 2010, 2030 and 2050 emphasises the need to support older people in the workplace (note that many EU countries are currently raising the retirement age) and in the community - an accessible Web contributes to this.
Note to presenters:
European presenters may like to extract the actual numbers for their own country from EuroStat and contrast with EU average (see also the Eurostat Yearbook [PDF])
This slide presents the data as a table - you may prefer to use the following slide which contains the same data graphed (don't use both).
Definitions:
"old age dependency ratio" is the ratio of the population aged 65 and over as a % of the working-age population
"working-age population" is defined by EuroStat as people between 16 and 64 years of age
"EU-25" represents the 25 countries that comprised the EU as at 1 May 2004
Forecast differences across Europe in the population over 65 as a percentage of those aged 16-64 years.
Source: EuroStat (PDF)
This graph highlights the forecast differences in the old-age dependency ratio across Europe over the next four decades.
In 2005, most countries were close to the EU average of 1 person over 65 for every four of working age (1:4).
The EU average in 2010 will be 26%, forecast to rise to 40% in 2030 and 53% in 2050 (i.e. a change from 4 workers for every retiree to 2 workers for every retiree).
Some individual countries within the EU vary considerably from the average [read out the contrasting figures for Netherlands, Austria and Italy]
These forecast changes between 2010, 2030 and 2050 emphasises the need to support older people in the workplace (note that many EU countries are currently raising the retirement age) and in the community - an accessible Web contributes to this.
Note to presenters:
European presenters may like to extract the actual numbers for their own country from EuroStat and contrast with EU average (see also the Eurostat Yearbook [PDF])
This slide presents the data as a graph - you may prefer to use the previous slide which presents contains the data as a table (don't use both).
Definitions:
"old age dependency ratio" is the ratio of the population aged 65 and over as a % of the working-age population
"working-age population" is defined by EuroStat as people between 16 and 64 years of age
"EU-25" represents the 25 countries that comprised the EU as at 1 May 2004
At the same time, online participation is developing and expected in:
These previous statistics are leading in working ages being extended, and with that goes lifelong learning.
Furthermore, all forms of community participation are going online, and participation is expected and being encouraged ... [read list]
Older people are expected and wanting to participate, and are being encouraged and supported to do so if they aren't online already.
Vision decline
Hearing loss
Motor skill diminishment
Cognitive limitations
Impairment often accompanies the ageing process - vision loss, hearing loss, motor skill diminishment, cognitive decline.
Vision decline often starts in a person's mid-40s. It affects 16% of people 65 to 74 years, but 46% of those over 85 years. In older people vision decline includes:
Hearing starts to decline at around 50 years, affecting 19% of people 61 to 80 years but 75% of people over 81 years.
Motor skill diminishment includes arthritis, with joint stiffening, and Parkinson's Disease, with associated hand trembling, making mouse use difficult or impossible for some. Arthritis is estimated to affect at least 50% of people over 65.
Cognitive impairment is also common. While Dementia affects part of the older population (1.4% of people 65-69 years increasing to 24% of people over 85 years), forms of mild cognitive impairment (or MCI) are much more common. MCI can result in:
Note to presenters:
For a short presentation, remove the bulleted lists and speak very briefly to the main areas of vision, hearing, motor skills, and cognition.
More detailed data is available from Web Accessibility for Older Users: A Literature Review
An extensive Literature Review was undertaken including literature which:
See "Web Accessibility for Older Users: A Literature Review" for details
To better understand the needs of the ageing population, the WAI-AGE Project undertook an extensive Literature Review. This review included a broad range of literature including scientific papers and popular articles. The range of literature reviewed included those that ... [read out the bulleted list]
In reviewing the literature, the Project found that:
Requirements overlap with those for people with disabilities:
WCAG 2.0 addresses these
Many of the requirements for making websites accessible to people with disabilities match the requirements of older users:
WCAG 2.0 addresses these requirements
Usability also assists people with disabilities:
WCAG 2.0 is also addressing more of these areas
Usability features also overlap with the requirements of people with disabilities
WCAG 2.0 covers more usability requirements than previously - this will assist older people and people with disabilities
Some other observations were made from the literature:
The project has been interacting with WAI Working groups and providing some ideas for consideration in forthcoming guidelines or as techniques for existing guidelines.
One of the identified issues has been the duplication of work in this area and the potential for divergence. The propjet has found that older people and people with disabilities have a lot of requirements in common and we need to encourage the researchers, developers and community to work more closely together for an accessible web.
Much of the remainder of the project will concentrate on incorporating the requirements of older people into existing WAI documents and developing new documents to help promote the need for including older people as well as people with disabilities during he development of websites and web applications.
The W3C Web Accessibility Initiative charters a number of working groups, the three working on guidelines are:
Other groups are involved in Evaluation Tools, Education and Outreach, and Research and Development
See www.w3.org/WAI/groups.html for participation details
WAI has Working Groups developing accessibility guidelines and related work, and Interest Groups providing a forum for discussing Web accessibility issues.
The Authoring tools working group develops guidelines, techniques, and supporting resources for Web "authoring tools" (the software that creates Web sites, including the contentmanagement systems, blogs, and social networking websites)
The User Agent working group develops guidelines, techniques, and supporting resources for Web "user agents" (including Web browsers and media players)
The Web Content (WCAG) working group develops guidelines, techniques, and supporting resources for Web "content" (the information in a Web site, including text, images, forms, sounds, and such, as well as the interactivity) and released WCAG 2.0 at the end of 2008.
These three sets of guidelines are crucial for the future of an accessible Web. Obviously the content is important, but that content has to be created appropriately, and anyone should be able to do this. And, the content has to be accessed, and the browser needs to be accessible and usable by all.
Other groups are involved in Evaluation Tools, Education and Outreach, and Research and Development - see the working groups website for details.
Many existing WAI documents will benefit from having the needs of older users more explicitly considered:
New resources are planned to build on the Project's findings and the benefits of WCAG 2.0:
Anyone interested in this topic is invited to:
Note to presenters:
Depending on your audience, you may not want to show the following 'research' slide, so just mention a couple of areas
Some gaps that need to be investigated:
Some of the gaps in our understanding of the requirements of older people using the Web relate to: