Rectracktimeline

What is the minimum time to Recommendation? Here is an attempt to sketch it out…

An "easy" schedule - about 11 months

This allows several days for every transition, and allows for around 8 months of technical development. That coincidentally means each patent exclusion runs out on its own, before any transition.

It assumes that the group is getting sufficient review and implementation of its work along its timeline not to be held up, and that its work is so good there are no objections or problems once it gets to CR.

Day 0: Working Group is chartered to produce some specification
Day 30: Working Group agrees to request First Public Working Draft
some Day 31-40 (assume 40…): FPWD published. First exclusion period begins.
Day 130: New Working Draft published. This becomes the "reference draft" against which exclusions are made.
Day 190: FPWD Exclusion period ends. New Working Draft published
Day 200: New Working Draft published, Working Group agrees to request CR status.
Day 210: CR published. Second exclusion period begins, on delta between this and the Working Draft.
Day 270: CR review ends. No substantive changes required beyond removing features listed "At-risk".; Exclusion period ends. No exclusions made.
Day 275: group resolves to request Proposed Rec status
Day 281: Proposed Rec published
Day 308: AC review ends
Day 325: Recommendation published

Aggressive schedule: ~180 days to Rec - or ~90-day update cycle

This version runs out the exclusion clock completely, but assumes that:

Working Group decisions and transitions are effectively zero-day operations, presumably by planning in advance
all changes are interoperably implemented, tested and documented within days or weeks, and
from 12 weeks after FPWD there are no issues raised that require a substantive change.

If the group is repeatedly updating a specification on this timeline, then a new Recommendation can be generated approximately every 90 days, allowing for about 12 weeks of development in each version.

Day 0: WG decision to request FPWD, granted by the director, immediate publication
Day 84: WG decision to request CR transition, and to publish the developing branch as a new FPWD - starting a new cycle.
Day 90: Director's approval, CR, and FPWD of version.next published.; AC review starts
Day 118: Earliest possible end date for CR review
Day 124: WG Decision to request Proposed Recommendation
Day 130: Director approves PR
Day 150: End of exclusion opportunities
Day 158: End of AC review
Day 179: Director should explain why the decision on the Recommendation has taken longer than three weeks.
Day 180: Recommendation Published

In ridiculous theory: 59 days

This makes a lot of unrealistic assumptions:

That the specification is ready. Although this has been asserted before, I am not aware of it having been borne out by a CR period that didn't require changes.
The Director has to accept that the group has received Wide Review of the specification. This is feasible with a well-incubated spec, but seems unlikely today.
The Director has to justify an AC review that ends while there is still an open exclusion opportunity. This is allowed by the process, but discouraged.
All transitions take mere hours from when they could theoretically begin to when they are completed. This has never been done - historically, it is more likely to take a small number of weeks, assuming consensus exists.

Day 0: Working group makes an instant decision to request First Public Working Draft, and Candidate Recommendation status, for the same document. Note this is feasible, especially if the specification has been well-incubated. It has been requested in the past, I am not sure if the double transition has been approved.; Director approves the transitions.
Day 1: FPWD/Candidate Recommendation published.; AC review begins. Note: this has been the process requirement for two years, but never implemented.
Day 28: Candidate Recommendation finishes, Working Group requests transition to Proposed Recommendation.
Day 29: Director approves transition. Note: This means justifying ignoring the fact that the Exclusion opportunity for the First Public Working Draft and the Candidate Recommendation will still be open well after the close of the AC Review period. So this requires specific justification for closing the review.
Day 30: Proposed Recommendation published.
Day 57: AC review ends
Day 58: Director announces decision, specification published as a Recommendation.